Airport Transaction Due Diligence

We have acted as both buy and sell-side traffic advisors on airport transactions totalling more than $250bn. We are trusted for our expertise in passenger forecasting, aeronautical and commercial revenue projections, capacity planning and business strategy.

  • Traffic and Movements Forecasts
  • Aeronautical Revenue Forecasts
  • Regulatory Assessment
  • Commercial Revenue Forecasts
  • Operating Performance Forecasts
  • Peak Hour Analysis
  • Busy Day Analysis
  • Capacity Planning
  • Stand Evaluation

Related Case Studies

Buy Side: Odebrecht and Singapore Changi International Airport

Assignment: Traffic and aeronautical revenue forecasts for Rio de Janeiro Galeão International Airport.

Particular focus was on the impact of the World Cup and the Olympics and the effect of a new high-speed rail link to São Paulo. The forecast also accounted for expected increases in traffic resulting from liberalised air service agreements with the EU and US. The consortium offered 19 billion Brazilian Reais ($8.3 billion) to the government for the right to run one of Brazil's main gateway airports for the next 25 years.

Sell Side: AENA

Assignment: Traffic forecasts for the privatisation of Madrid and Barcelona Airports.

We were approached by the airports’ advisors to review and provide opinions on the AENA traffic forecasts and also to produce our own traffic forecasts. We critically examined the methodology used the resultant projections, based on our own knowledge and experience of the industry. We also then produced our own traffic forecasts with the short term based on a detailed analysis of schedules, movements, airline strategy and growth potential and the long term based on econometric analysis.

Greenfield: IGA New Istanbul

Assignment: Traffic Forecasts, Aeronautical Revenue Forecasts and Transaction Advice.

Aviation Economics was appointed by the project sponsors who won the concession to build the new airport in Istanbul. We have worked with the sponsors since 2013 providing inputs into the financial model for the airport in terms of both traffic and aeronautical revenues. We have also liaised with lenders providing debt financing for the airport. Our work has been updated annually to reflect shock events such as the impact of terrorism that have negatively impacted air travel demand. Our work has included liaising with Turkish Airlines and other stakeholders. The new airport opened in 2019 and will eventually have six runways and have a capacity to handle 200 million passengers per annum.


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