Project Examples

United Kingdom

Client:
Belfast City Airport

Assignment:
Catchment Analysis and London market analysis, UK.

Overview:
Analysis of the catchment area both from a drivetime and also a competitive service point of view. This resulted in the creating of an ‘area of influence’ where it is anticipated that Belfast City Airport has the most influence on the population within. In a separate piece of work, we analysed the performance of the London market from an airline profitability perspective.

Client:
Birmingham International Airport Ltd, UK

Assignment:
A major airline Profitability Analysis.

Overview:
We were commissioned by Birmingham Airport to undertake a profitability study of an airline’s entire network from the airport. We provided detailed profit analysis down to fully allocated profit level for every flight, the best and worst performers and were able to identify the relative performance of all market segments.

Client:
Caithness Chamber of Commerce, UK

Assignment:
Wick John O’Groats Airport, Air Service Development Study (PSO).

Overview:
We were commissioned by Caithness Chamber of Commerce to undertake a study into the possibility of an air service linking Wick John O’Groats Airport with Inverness Airport. This included an assessment of the current performance of services from Wick to Edinburgh and Aberdeen Airports as well as a passenger demand survey of potential users of the new air service, an estimation of total demand and assessment of aircraft types, airlines and schedule that could be operated and a high-level economic impact assessment of the hypothetical new air service.

Client:
Heathrow Airport Limited (HAL), UK

Assignment:
Heathrow Airport, Western Rail Link (WLR) traffic impact, UK.

Overview:
Aviation Economics (AE) has been retained by HAL to evaluate how WRL could influence future airport demand, i.e. whether the improved connectivity delivered by the project could attract additional passengers to Heathrow from other airports. Specifically AE’s task is to assess and quantify the additional passenger demand that Western Rail Link (WRL) will generate.

Client:
London City Airport, UK

Assignment:
CAA Survey Data Analysis.

Overview:
CAA survey data can provide a great insight into the market, from both an airport performance and market leakage perspective. We undertake a detailed analysis of the London data each year, creating catchments for different competitive scenarios and reviewing/updating these annually. The market penetration of districts, distribution of passengers and market demographics both within and outside of the catchments are calculated and this is used by both the air services development team and the marketing team.

Client:
MIRA

Assignment:
Buy side traffic advisor, London City Airport transaction, UK.

Overview:
Traffic and Revenue forecasts for an investment consortium looking to acquire a majority stake in London City Airport.

Client:
Manchester Airports Group, UK

Assignment:
Traffic forecast review.

Overview:
Reviewed a detailed forecast for Manchester Airport developed in the context of assessing the case for additional infrastructure, including year-on-year schedule changes, peak hour evolution and economic assumptions. Provided a number of recommendations to improve the accuracy and reliability of the forecast.

Client:
Independent Transport Commission

Assignment:
Aviation Sustainability Report.

Overview:
Produced a report for open publication about the sustainability of UK aviation in the UK with respect to debates on expanding capacity in the London area. Included detailed forecasts of global airline fleets and the relative impact of hub-and-spoke and point-to-point networks.

Europe

Client:
Athens International Airport

Assignment:
Long-term forecast, Greece.

Overview:
Engaged by AIA to produce a long-term forecast to be used as part of its’ master planning process and possible sale of an equity stake by the Greek Government. The forecast had a particular focus on airline competition at AIA with analysis of the new Ryanair hub operation at the airport.

Client:
MIRA, Belgium.

Assignment:
Brussels Airport, Minority Sales, Sell Side Traffic Advisor, Belgium.

Overview:
Provided short, medium and long-term traffic forecasting, market assessment and aeronautical revenue analysis to supply the Aviation Economics outputs for the vendor business plan due diligence. As part of these forecasts, we looked at passenger, cargo and general aviation forecasts, wider demographic and macro-economic factors driving the overall demand to/from the airport as well as the main airline’s strategy (Brussels Airlines). In carrying out the update of the work, we met with airport management and key airlines for additional and important insight into future route development opportunities and broader airline strategies as they relate to Brussels.

Client:
Confidential, Bulgaria

Assignment:
Due diligence of the regulatory system in Bulgaria and implications to aeronautical revenue forecasting.

Overview:
The due diligence program included a thorough investigation of the regulatory policies in place including a review of the European Union Directive, the Civil Aviation Act of Bulgaria, the Ordinance on Airport Pricing, the ICAO Airport Economics Manual, and other relevant airport specific documentation and Regulator determinations.
The due diligence included the development of a dual-till regulatory model including the development and recommendation of an appropriate Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC). As a consequence of the dual till forecast yield profile result we also recommended a holistic strategy for airport pricing including the approach to take with the regulator and with airlines users.

Client:
Catalunya Airports

Assignment:
Masterplan, technical assistance to the strategy of Catalunya aviation in 2030, Spain.

Overview:
This assignment required the development of a Strategic Plan for the development of commercial airports in Catalunya. There are five airports in Catalunya that we would define as commercial airports, these being Barcelona El Prat, Girona, Reus, Lleida and Andorra-La Seu owned and operated by AENA and Aeroports de Catalunya. Based on our market study and long term forecast for the region, together with assessment of Barcelona airport runway capacity, we analysed and recommended the strategy options for these surrounding airports in the region.

Client:
Domodedovo Airport, Russia

Assignment:
Traffic forecast on behalf of the IPO sell side consortium of JP Morgan, Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs.

Overview:
Full suite of short, medium and long term traffic forecasts encompassing a thorough market assessment, including competitive analysis, airline interviews, tourism assessment, economic outlook.

Client:
IGA New Istanbul

Assignment:
Traffic Forecasts, Aeronautical Revenue Forecasts and Transaction Advice.

Overview:
Aviation Economics was appointed by the project sponsors who won the concession to build the new airport in Istanbul. We have worked with the sponsors for the past six years providing inputs into the financial model for the airport in terms of both traffic and aeronautical revenues. We have also liaised with lenders providing debt financing for the airport. Our work has been updated annually to reflect shock events such as the impact of terrorism that have negatively impacted air travel demand. Our work has included liaising with Turkish Airlines and other stakeholders. The new airport opens this year and will eventually have six runways and have a capacity to handle 200 million passengers per annum.

Client:
Antin Infrastructure, Malta

Assignment:
Malta International Airport, Buy side traffic due diligence, Malta.

Overview:
We advised the client on technical due diligence including market assessment, airport charge benchmarking to the Mediterranean touristic competitors, short and long term traffic forecast, with a focus on Air Malta and Low cost development.

Client:
Autorità Garante della Concorrenza e del Mercato – Italian Competition Authority, Italy

Assignment:
Advice in relation to the slot divesture by Alitalia on the Milan Linate – Rome Fiumincino and the award of those slots to a new entrant (easyJet).

Client:
Shandong Hi-Speed Group and Friedmann Pacific Asset Management

Assignment:
Toulouse Airport – Minority Investment, Buy Side Traffic Advisor, France.

Overview:
Engaged by the winning consortium to produce an assessment of future demand at Toulouse Blagnac Airport. We produced detailed short-term bottom up forecasts and long term top-down forecasts for the consortium. Forecasting included assessment of busy day runway capacity and terminal peak hour throughput to feed into the capex modelling. The consortium were the winning bidder for a 49.99% stake in the airport.

Client:
IFM Investors

Assignment:
Vienna Airport – Minority Investment, Buy Side Traffic Advisor, Vienna.

Overview:
Provided detailed traffic forecasting and market assessment for IFM which resulted in the successful acquisition of a minority stake in Vienna Airport. As part of these forecasts, we looked at passenger, cargo and general aviation forecasts, wider demographic and macro-economic factors driving the overall demand to/from the airport as well Austrian Airlines hub strategy.

Client:
Cengiz, Kalyon and Kolin, Greenfiled Airport, Albania

Assignment:
Greenfield, Vlora Airport – Traffic Forecast, Business Plan and Economic Assessment, Albania.

Overview:
Commissioned by the consortium to conduct a market assessment and traffic forecast, together with the full financial business plan, including an economic impact assessment, of the potential new commercial airport in Vlorë, Albania.

North America

Client:
Ferrovial

Assignment:
JFK Airport, Buy side traffic advisor for JetBlue terminal, USA.

Overview:
We provided the primary and secondary traffic forecasts, by terminal. Secondary’s also included a planning day forecast. Using a top down, unconstrained JFK-wide forecast, the analysis then focused on a peak day movement slot forecast, which led to the development of an annual constrained airport forecast. The terminal forecast was based on an assumed gate availability and assignment of JetBlue, BA and other airlines using the current schedule pattern and the long term growth constrained forecast.

Latin America & Caribbean

Client:
Current, Confidential

Assignment:
Brazil Regional Airports Concession, Buy side – Traffic techincal due diligence, Brazil.

Overview:
Currently advising our client for buy-side due diligence, on the on-going fifth round of airport concessions in Brazil. The 3 clusters include: Northeast, Southeast and Central West block of a total of 13 airports. The project comprised of Market assessment, primary and secondary market forecasts and aeronautical revenue forecasts.

Client:
VINCI Airports

Assignment:
Havana Airport – Buy Side Traffic Advisor and Market Assessment, Cuba.

Overview:
Engaged by VINCI Airports as lead traffic adviser as part of a due diligence team looking the acquisition of Havana Airport in Cuba. The brief included long term passenger and aeronautical revenue forecasts, alongside busy day and peak hour demand forecasts in support of the business plan.

Client:
New Mexico City Airport, Mexico City

Assignment:
Airport Feasibility Study, Investor Traffic Advisor and Market Assessment.

Overview:
Provided market assessment and long term traffic/revenue forecasts for a new green-field airport in Mexico. This included producing a strategic analysis of the demand for air travel in Mexico, examining demand drivers and analysing traffic flows to better understand potential for low cost and network airline development.

Middle East

Client:
Private equity investors, Air Arabia, UAE

Assignment:
Start-Up Airline

Overview:
Full business planning, financial modelling, initial management and system set-up for successful UAE-based Air Arabia, the first and only flag carrier to be designed on LCC criteria. Highly successful IPO.

Client:
ADP Management

Assignment:
Queen Alia International Airport – Majority Investment, Buy Side Traffic Advisor, Jordan.

Overview:
Engaged by Aeroport de Paris Management (now ADP International) to review existing traffic forecasts, prepare a new traffic forecast, advise on route development strategy and provide peak hour and busy day schedule forecast for the additional acquisition of the major stake at AIG which holds 25 year concession at Amman, Jordan airport.

Asia-Pacific

Client:
MIRA, Japan

Client:
Fukuoka Airport Buy-Side Traffic Due Diligence Advisor, Japan.

Overview:
Fukuoka is the fourth largest airport in Japan, after the two major Tokyo airports and Osaka. In 2017, in partnership with Arup, we provided preliminary and final traffic due diligence reports encompassing a full market assessment, benchmarking and contextualisation of key growth drivers, the detailed short and long term forecast, and the associated aeronautical revenue forecasts.

Client:
Current, Confidential, Japan

Client:
Hokkaido Airport privatisation – Buy side traffic advisor, Japan.

Overview:
To develop the long-term traffic forecast for each of 7 airports in the region, with a focus on New Chitose. The project also included a detailed route development assessment to produce a target list of potential new routes, providing the operator a short to medium term strategic plan for a full air services development program across the multiple airport system.

Client:
GVK, Indonesia

Client:
Jakarta- Seokarno Hatta Airport, unconstrained traffic forecast, Indonesia.

Overview:
Aviation Economics were tasked to produce an indicative unconstrained passenger forecast for Jakarta- Seokarno Hatta Airport in Indonesia as part of a confidential project being undertaken by GVK.

Client:
Vinci Airports, Myanmar

Client:
Myanmar Airports Development, Myanmar

Overview:
Engaged to provide background research and forecasts for Yangon, Mandalay and the new proposed Hanthawaddy airports in Myanmar. This was a challenging project as the economy in Myanmar is undergoing a period of rapid growth and the structure of the current airline sector is likely to undergo major change in the next few years. Our approach was based around benchmarking future demand in Myanmar with the more mature economies within South East Asia.

Client:
Cavitex, Philippines

Client:
Sangley International Airport for traffic forecast within Preliminary Masterplan, Philippines.

Overview:
Provided the full system forecast for passengers, cargo and movements for the Greater Capital Region (GCR) of Manila, and identifying Sangley International Airport’s anticipated share of that traffic, with particular consideration given to the planned future development of Clark International Airport. The project also extrapolated Busy Day and Busy Hour forecasts to inform the design of key airport facilities for the milestone years of 2020, 2025, 2035 and 2050.

Client:
Spice Jet, India

Client:
Full business planning, financial modelling, initial management, system set-up and advice in relation to a capital-raising exercise including participation in the investor Road Show. First genuine LCC in the Indian market.

Africa

Client:
Gabon Special Economic Zone (GSEZ)

Client:
Economic Feasibility Study Due Diligence for New Libreville International Airport, Gabon.

Overview:
We were commissioned by GSEZ to provide commercial due diligence in respect of the Techno Economic Feasibility Study, for the New Libreville International Airport. The service included market assessment, passenger and aeronautical revenue forecasts.

Client:
African Development Bank, Kenya

Client:
JKIA New terminal, Lenders traffic advisor, Kenya.

Overview:
We provided primary and secondary traffic forecasts for the airports new terminal for a 20 year time horizon.

Client:
Lagos State Government Consortium, Nigeria

Client:
Lekki-Epe International Airport, Nigeria

Overview:
We provided detailed traffic forecasting and market assessment work to understand the feasibility of the construction of a new airport in Lagos. As part of this work, we looked at both the short-term supply side driven demand (reviewing BASA’s and airline development strategies) and long-term demand side driven outlook (such as population and local economic wealth).